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The tightening of the material end has become a fact, and the power supply end is naturally insufficient. From a system perspective, on the premise of overall balance and complementary functions, it is necessary to realize the coordinated development of various power sources such as green and low-carbon transformation of energy, flexible regulation of resources, making up for weaknesses, and water nuclear, wind and solar energy storage.

 

Who would have thought that in the past few months, the low-key energy industry has received extensive attention from the society.

 

On September 25, the Bank of China publicly stated that it would no longer provide financing for overseas new coal mining and new coal power projects. This is a timely follow-up to the statement made by Chinese leaders at the 76th United Nations General Assembly four days ago that "China will vigorously support the green and low-carbon development of energy in developing countries and will no longer build overseas coal power projects". At the same time, it is also considered to be a response to some ulterior motives to attack Chinese forces with carbon emission issues. At this time, China's withdrawal from this field will become a wind vane leading the world to curb the development momentum of coal power.

 

In addition, coal power has become a "sharp weapon" in the eyes of some economists to eliminate backward production capacity and promote industrial upgrading, and "a secret weapon against international pressure and financial risks" in the eyes of some we media

 

The concept of coal power is naturally a little confused. Under the "double carbon" goal, does it mean that the outcome of coal-fired power enterprises has been doomed, and can wind power and photovoltaic as substitutes have unlimited scenery? Only by clarifying the underlying logic will these problems be brought to light.

 

Root cause: imbalance between supply and demand

 

In early September, a "request for instructions" issued by 11 companies in the power industry was found on the Internet, which mentioned that "the cost of coal-fired plant of Beijing Tianjin Tangshan power grid has exceeded the breakeven point (only considering the fuel cost) , it is seriously inversely linked with the benchmark electricity price, and the loss rate of coal-fired plants has reached 100%. The coal inventory is generally low, the coal quantity and coal quality cannot be guaranteed, and the power generation capacity is blocked, which seriously affects the normal development of power trading and the stable supply of power. The business situation of enterprises is extremely difficult, and some enterprises have broken the capital chain. "

 

This move shows that the contradiction between coal and electricity has reached the time to face it squarely.

 

At present, it is an indisputable fact that China's coal storage is low and coal price is high. According to the notice on coal economic operation in the first half of 2021 issued by China Coal Industry Association on September 3, the coal price has always been high in the first half of 2021. At the end of June, the coal stocks of national coal enterprises and major ports have decreased significantly; The coal storage of thermal power plants in China was about 110 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21 million tons. In addition to the limited supply of domestic coal production, imported coal has also been reduced and the price has increased since this year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, in the first eight months of this year, China imported 198 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, and the average import price was 560.7 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. The tightening of the raw material end has become a fact, and the power supply end is naturally insufficient.

 

On the demand side, the large-scale shutdown caused by the epidemic in Southeast Asia has re selected China for many international orders, thus stimulating the rise of power consumption of enterprises. The growth of power consumption has become the incentive for the concentrated outbreak of coal power contradiction this summer. Information from the national development and Reform Commission shows that since the beginning of summer this year, the power load in many places in the country has reached a new high. On July 14, China's daily electricity consumption set a new historical record, an increase of more than 10% over the highest value in the summer of 2020. According to the data recently released by China electricity Union, in the first half of the year, the power consumption of the whole society increased by 16.2% year-on-year, and the thermal power generation above designated size increased by 15% year-on-year. On the one hand, the growth rate of power demand is more than that of power generation, and the demand is increasing; On the other hand, coal power enterprises have difficulties in operation, reduced production capacity and continuously reduced power generation. "Orderly use of electricity" has become a high-frequency word in the past two months.

 

After the coal and electricity linkage mechanism withdrew from the historical stage, the coal and electricity enterprises located in the middle reaches of the industrial chain were unable to smoothly transmit the cost growth from the upstream coal enterprises to the downstream users, and they fell into the dilemma of collective loss again.

 

Obviously, at the economic level, the underlying logic of the coal power problem is only the most basic contradiction between supply and demand caused by the imbalance between supply and demand. In the short term, limiting power and controlling production and curbing demand can be used as a temporary solution; In the long run, the right way for development is to realize the marketization of electricity price and meet energy supply.

 

Role: supply guarantee and emission reduction

 

With the proposal of the "double carbon" goal, many central energy enterprises have planned their own timetable and road map to achieve carbon neutralization, and have accelerated the "channel switching" to clean energy. The national energy group proposes that the new installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 70 million ~ 80 million KW; Datang Group said that by 2025, the installed capacity of non fossil energy will exceed 50%, reaching the carbon peak five years ahead of schedule; Huaneng Group will make every effort to create three major supports of new energy, nuclear power and hydropower, and actively implement coal and carbon reduction; The Three Gorges group has determined to achieve carbon neutralization by 2040... At present, coal power accounts for the largest proportion of China's power installation, and carbon emissions also account for the bulk. It is bound to be impacted, and it is likely to change from a protagonist to a supporting role in China's energy system in the future.

 

However, in terms of consumption structure, thermal power generation accounts for about 68%, hydropower accounts for about 18%, wind power and solar power account for about 10%, and nuclear power and other forms of power generation account for about 5%. A survey shows that with the reduction of new coal-fired power projects, China's coal-fired power generation will peak in 2027, and then decline slowly. By 2050, China's coal power output will account for only 15% of the overall power generation.

 

The energy industrial structure and industrial system will also change. China is a global manufacturing center. More than 80% of the electricity and heat produced in industry are provided by coal-fired boilers, which involves all aspects of industrial transformation. At present, clean energy is difficult to replace coal power in a short time.

 

In addition, coal power still has unparalleled technical and economic advantages in basic load guarantee, reliable heat supply, low consumption, high efficiency and reliable standby. The role of "ballast" and "stabilizer" is irreplaceable and will play the dual role of "supply guarantee and emission reduction".

 

On the one hand, the coal power industry is still the realistic demand to ensure national energy security, and its strategic position cannot be shaken; On the other hand, the flexible regulation capability of coal power station has been proved to be the basis of large-scale grid connection operation of renewable energy. These two aspects determine that even if the protagonist becomes a supporting role in the future, coal power still has its own world.

 

Industry experts said: "Compared with conventional power sources, the output of new energy sources has significant characteristics of intermittency, fluctuation and randomness. To build a new power system with new energy as the main body, it is necessary to clarify the development orientation of various types of power sources on the premise of overall balance and complementary functions, so as to realize the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, pay equal attention to flexible regulation, resource complementarity, water, nuclear, wind, solar energy storage and other power sources And build a diversified clean energy supply system. "

 

At present, the ideal expectation is that with the progress and development of clean energy technology, wind power and photovoltaic will become the backbone of China's power system in the future, and coal power will change from the main energy to regulatory energy. In this process, the coal power industry will reconstruct the coal power industry chain system through technology upgrading, emission reduction, flexible transformation and market-oriented integration, so as to play an important role in the new power system in the future Important basic power role.

 

Scenery: take the responsibility early

 

Are wind power and photovoltaic, as successors, really ready to support China's energy system?

 

A set of data clearly shows that the reality is not optimistic.

 

According to the data of the national development and Reform Commission, during the cold wave power load peak on January 7, 2021, the national power load peak was 1.189 billion kw, the total installed output of 250 million KW during the power peak period was 0, the output of wind power was only 10% of the installed capacity, and the output of wind power and photovoltaic was less than 30 million KW. The main force supporting the power load peak on that day was thermal power with an output of more than 90% And 100% nuclear power.

 

By the end of 2020, the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power in China was 530 million KW, and the total power generation was 727.6 billion kwh; the installed capacity of coal power was 1.08 billion kw, and the power generation exceeded 4.6 trillion kwh. The installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power, which is close to 50% of coal power, is less than 16% of coal power, and the effect is worrying.

 

Wind power and PV, at least at present, are still a little immature and can not achieve immediate results. Fortunately, there is still enough time from the "double carbon" goal, and the growth space of wind power and PV can be expected.